Assorted Notes

SATURDAY, 19 JANUARY 2019

When people criticise something they know very little about – or something they have never critically considered or investigated, they are like ventriloquist dolls. Their mouths are moving, but they are not really the ones talking. They are simply playing back other people’s opinions that they have “recorded” and that they had considered authoritative at that moment.

TUESDAY, 12 FEBRUARY 2019

A series of statements made by a student in a documentary about Evergreen University comes down to the following:

1. There is a problem in society.

2. We expect people to say the problem is not as serious as we say it is.

3. If you claim the problem is not as serious as we say it is, you are part of the problem.

4. The problem, and all who do not actively oppose it, must be combatted with all necessary might.

Checkmate?

1. You are guilty of Offense X.

2. We expect you to say you’re not guilty.

3. Your efforts to deny your guilt prove that we are right about you.

4. Guilty people must be punished.

WEDNESDAY, 13 FEBRUARY 2019

For a long time I was careful about what I wrote. It was my habit to anticipate how people would respond to something that I had written, to anticipate what counter-argument they would make. I would then usually interrupt myself in the process of writing to pre-empt such an argument.

I would also have applied what can only be described as self-censorship. If I thought of something I wanted to put on paper, I would consider labels that people might attach to me because of the statement or opinion. If I didn’t like the label, or I didn’t think I could launch an effective defence – even if the label would be false, I would rather not write what I had wanted to write, or I wouldn’t publish what I had already written.

However, over the past two years, I have become aware of the fact that people are being destroyed on social media on an almost daily basis for something they said or wrote, sometimes years ago, and which is now in conflict with the accepted doctrines of the day. Even if you didn’t mean something like they claim, or even if you’ve come to different insights, or if you want to argue that that one opinion or statement does not represent you as a person, or that it should be seen as part of a broader discussion or series of statements, you soon realise you’re wasting your time. Defending yourself is futile – the mob has already found you guilty.

This brought me to the conclusion that one should just say what you want to say, and forget what other people might think. If you are publicly chastised, at least you gave your honest opinion. Isn’t that better than living in trembling fear of a mob that is becoming more intolerant as we speak?

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SUNDAY, 13 JANUARY 2019

Primary objective, still: To make my life worth living.

This comes down to living my life the way I like it, because I have confidence in myself that I will do a good job.

Bonus: I don’t presume I can teach anyone anything, but if I have the opportunity to share one or two useful insights or snippets of advice with someone else, that will also be good.

TUESDAY, 22 JANUARY 2019

21:17

With a new perspective, and a handful of new insights, it seems in retrospect that I had some highly eccentric ideas over the years.

One was my view on being happy. I always believed that one should be careful about it, because just as you find yourself in a condition that can be described as happiness, something happens and … how silly wouldn’t you feel then?

The other silly idea was about money, for which one had to necessarily do tricks, jump through burning hoops, and spend some of the best hours of your weekdays in soul-crushing tedium. It had to be that way, I always thought, because money is not your friend.

22:08

For a long time I cited the terms “struggle” and “creation” as words of special significance. The idea was to struggle against things, and eventually reach a stage of your life where you could focus more on creative endeavours.

However, it is important to point out that I was always careful about translating into Afrikaans the word “struggle”. It did not necessarily mean struggling, but rather wrestling with something, and overcoming it. This obstacle that one had to overcome could be a disability, a toxic relationship, or a situation from which you had to escape. The essence of the idea was positive, and creative (even before you came to the creation part). It was about looking at the cards you were dealt, and then working out the best game plan. And when you achieved a breakthrough and you no longer had to spend so much energy and time on this wrestling with an issue, you could apply your time and energy to creating something – literature or any other art form, or creating in any other way a good, fulfilling, productive life.

TUESDAY, 23 JANUARY 2019

Wednesday, 12 December 2018: “Eventually, I would be able to say that the process of becoming financially independent has been enjoyable, stimulating, fulfilling, and extremely interesting, as virtually everything I have read and applied came down to improving myself.”

I just thought I’d underline this point: If you want to make more money, improve yourself.

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SATURDAY, 5 JANUARY 2019

In the video, “7 Practical Ways To Rewire Your Brain (Based On Science)”, the guy says, “We’re set up for failure, because we think we’re going north but we’re going south. That’s why fifty percent of people who get married divorce; eighty percent of businesses fail; that’s why thirty percent of Americans are on some kind of anti-depressant medication; that’s why sixty, seventy percent of people are overweight.”

Also: If your goal is north, but your compass is set to south without you being aware of it, you can work as hard as you want, you can optimise your efforts as much as any good book says you should, but you would walk 40,000 miles to finally reach the back of your goal, while from the start you only needed to walk a few hundred miles.

He also says – I don’t know if it’s true – that the average American has saved only about $60,000 [NT$1.8 million in January 2019] by the time they’re sixty years old.

I wanted to confirm this last point, which led me to the following: An estimated 38 million households in America live hand to mouth – which means they have no money left by the time the next pay check comes in. Two-thirds of these households apparently have a median income of $41,000, placing them just above the federal poverty level (for a four-person household). What’s worse is that three-quarters of Latino and African-American households have saved less than $10,000 by the time they retire, and nearly two-thirds of these households reach retirement age with no money saved for the future.

According to an analysis of the US Government Accountability Office median retirement savings for Americans in the 55-64 age group are about $107,000 (NT$3.3 million in January 2019). In comparison, the savings in all retirement accounts of the so-called Generation X are about $32,000-$71,000 [NT$1 million-NT$2.2 million]. (Remember, all it means if you fall in this median range is that you are in the same boat as many other people – but it’s not to say it’s a good boat.)

The guy in the video also says most people will eventually get what they want – using books and guides and experience that will help them adjust their compass, just about forty years after they hoped they would (my version of what he says – he speaks in a somewhat convoluted way).

THURSDAY, 17 JANUARY 2019

I read books like Jim Rickards’ The Road to Ruin, and I watch videos like Mike Maloney’s “Top 10 Reasons I Buy Gold and Silver”.

One wonders what you would do if what some people predict may happen, actually ends up happening: the stock exchanges close until further notice, paper money loses its value, and the economy more or less collapses.

Of course, it is suggested that you buy gold, and silver, and other precious metals, especially in easy-to-convert formats – seeing that you may need to exchange a gold or silver coin for some crates of vegetables and fruits.

But what if you aren’t able to spend a few million Taiwan dollars, or a few million rand on precious metals?

Two ideas immediately emerge to improve my mood. The first is skills – things you can do for someone else, who will compensate you with something of value, that you can then use yourself or that you can exchange for a can of coffee or something. The second thing is that there will still be a market for thousands of products and services. People will still need to do things or get things done. There will still be a need to learn things, or to be entertained. Parents would still want to teach their children to read and write – and not everyone can do it themselves. Things will still break – and not everyone would know how to fix it themselves.

Of course, the two ideas flow neatly together. Every city or village will still be filled with thousands or millions of people with needs and desires, and there will still be people who will be able to provide for these needs and desires. And if you have skills or knowledge that will enable you to provide in these ever-active markets, your bag of gold and silver coins may last longer than you initially thought it would.

In short, the big economy may collapse, but a local economy is likely to continue, despite disruption, and despite changes in payment methods and in service and product delivery.

SATURDAY, 19 JANUARY 2019

A fairly affluent and successful business man recently said in one of my classes that he didn’t want to get involved in a business he doesn’t know enough about, referring to friends of him who buy businesses or companies that have a good product but is considered to not be well managed. He added that for the same reason he did not invest in shares or mutual and index funds at all.

In a Radical Personal Finance podcast the host also said that he knew quite a few rich people who don’t invest in the stock market or in mutual funds or index funds, but only in “things with value”.

In The Death of Money, Jim Rickards says, “An allocation to gold of 10 to 20 percent of investable assets has much to commend it.” However, he adds: “An allocation above 20 percent is not recommended because gold is highly volatile and subject to manipulation, and there are other investable assets that perform the same wealth-preservation functions.” Other assets in which one can invest include works of art: “Fine art offers gold’s return profile in both inflation and deflation, without being subject to the manipulation that affects gold.” Even cash is a good investment because it gives the investor the option of turning to other investments at short notice. He also mentions that cash may not be the best investment after a major stock market disaster or collapse, but it can be of great value until the disaster appears on the horizon. “The challenge, of course,” Rickards reminds the reader, “is being attentive to the indications and warnings and making a timely transition to one of the alternatives already mentioned.”

MONDAY, 21 JANUARY 2019

12:35

Work out a retirement plan for now up to sixty.

Then make changes to the plan for the next decade of sixty to seventy as the world, the economy, and you and your partner undergo change.

Do the same again at seventy.

Make sure you keep two options in mind all the time: 1) You could still be making money up to your seventies, and 2) something could happen any day and you wouldn’t be able to actively generate any additional income.

13:01

Phase 1: Assets to provide security – property, insurance, gold and silver, cash for investments, other hard assets that can easily be converted into cash for other investments, some exchange-traded funds (ETFs), investments in yourself to ensure you can continue to generate income

Phase 2: More investments to provide more passive income

Phase 3: Assets, such as property, to provide security in retirement; health insurance; maximum investments for passive income; hard assets that can be converted from time to time into cash

TUESDAY, 22 JANUARY 2019

10:44

Bill Bonner says in a YouTube video that one should also keep some cash in your home, in case there is a disruption in the networks, or if banks where your digital credit is being held have a problem. Valuable advice if you think about how many people are moving away these days from hard cash in favour of digital credit – credit and debit cards, EZ cards, iPass, Apple Pay, Google Pay, Line Pay, other forms of “money” on your phone. With what do you pay if the cellular networks crash, or if the bank that holds the credit is experiencing a problem, or if the company where the credit is held goes bankrupt or their network is hacked?

11:09

The fact is, one must have an investment portfolio for when the world, as you know it, ceases to exist, and in case it continues to exist in more or less the same way. The former would include gold and silver coins, and hard cash; a way to protect yourself and your family against physical threats including a weapon and ammunition, and things like bulletproof jackets; emergency food and water supplies, and/or a way to produce your own food and purify water … and the latter would include gold and silver, hard cash, other precious items with value that would increase over time, property, stocks in a variety of funds, some stake in small businesses, and a portfolio of life, accident, and health insurance.

* * *

I’ve never been anyone else, but I think most people have a mechanism in their minds that considers what “you” think, and then informs you that your most recent thought could be labelled as X, Y, or Z. That might frighten you for a moment, because you also received information from the environment in which you live, and from other people whose opinions matter to you, or from social and other media, that label X, Y, or Z as “bad”.

And then you come to a point in your life where it suddenly doesn’t matter so much that you might be labelled X, Y, or Z. One such example is the last note of this piece (11:09 on Tuesday, 22 January 2019), in which what I wrote could be seen as that I now sort under a group whose members are paranoid about the world – so-called survivalists, and that I too might now want to go sit on a farmhouse porch with a shotgun on my lap.

Truth is, my thinking is always in flow. I don’t endorse any person’s or any group’s ideology. I also don’t belong to any group, or movement. All I do is read, consider what I read and hear and see, and write what I think. If it looks like X, T7, or 3#4, then so be it. (Friday, 8 March 2019)

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Or, in other words: How to save one million US dollars in three years – in no more than 300 words

MONDAY, 14 JANUARY 2019

Step One: Spend six months learning how to open an Internet-based business that yields an average of $20,000 net profit per month. (You can give yourself a year or more, and then it will take you a year or more. Give yourself exactly six months, and you’ll learn it in six months.)

Step Two: Maintain your existing sources of income, and your existing lifestyle. Manage the business for two years. Make sure you keep track of everything you do, all the money you spend to attract visitors to your business, and all other business expenses. Put all the profits into something like a Money Market account.

Step Three: Sell the business with a 24-month net profit of $20,000 per month on average, at 30 times the average monthly net profit. That should give you $600,000. The monthly profit you earned for two years should be at least $480,000 (seeing that it most probably earned some interest). You will have to pay about 15% commission to sell the business through a professional team, which should give you $510,000 plus $480,000 in the bank, for a total of just under one million US dollars (not considering the interest you earned on the money you invested every month).

Easier said than done? Whatever you say is true for you.

Extra notes:

The business must be based on the Internet, otherwise the group of potential buyers will be significantly smaller than you’ll need. The business is likely going to entail selling something – a service, digital products, or physical products (which you never have to handle or ship yourself).

WEDNESDAY, 23 JANUARY 2019

Money is not a scarce resource about which you have to constantly be in a state of fear. Money is a solution to a problem.

(“If you have money,” a voice proffers after the applause has calmed down.)

SUNDAY, 27 JANUARY 2019

Suppose I win the British Lottery, or I get a brilliant idea in my sleep, work on it for a few months and sell it for a million dollars, or a rich eccentric uncle whom I never knew mentions me in his will after passing away in his castle in southern Germany, what will I do with the money? What will I do with one million US dollars? (I will ignore for now the unpleasant fact that one would have to give up part of this fortune to the government.)

One: Spend ten percent ($100,000) to make some people’s and animals’ lives better.

Two: Spend five percent ($50,000) to buy some items I need, and/or make my life more comfortable, and go on vacation for two or three weeks (nothing too ostentatious – cheap hotels, public transportation and so on).

Three: Spend five percent ($50,000) on expanding and improving my own skills and abilities, including improving the likelihood of continuing to generate income over the next few decades.

Four: Spend three percent ($30,000) on two or three business projects to ensure an active income, with the option of selling the businesses after a few years and reinvesting the proceeds.

Five: Hold two percent ($20,000) in an active trading account.

Total spent: $250,000

Total amount left: $750,000

Six: Spend ten percent ($75,000) on gold coins, silver coins and silver bars.

Seven: Hold thirty percent ($225,000) in cash (dollars, euros, Chinese yuan, and Taiwan dollars), and in bank accounts.

Eight: Invest twenty percent ($150,000) in property – not our own residential property, but property that will either grow in value or generate income.

Nine: Invest five percent ($37,500) in a fine art investment fund.

Ten: Invest ten percent ($75,000) into some fund that invests in financial technology and natural resources.

Eleven: Invest five percent ($37,500) in some high-risk, high-return fund.

Twelve: Invest ten percent ($75,000) in high-quality bonds.

Thirteen: Invest ten percent ($75,000) in stocks – specifically natural resources, mining, energy, and technology.

In case this exposition seems surprisingly complicated for someone with very little experience in these matters, I must add that I have found some inspiration in two books, in particular: T. Harv Eker’s Secrets of the Millionaire Mind, and James Rickards’s The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis.

(More notes may follow. Notable in absentia is a so-called emergency fund, and mention of index funds – which many experts regard as a relatively safe investment.)

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