Category: Youth of my old age – 2024

Taiwan and independence: Reasonable arguments

TUESDAY, 28 MAY 2024

Maturity test for a leader of an independent Taiwan: Do you acknowledge that your small nation may be exploited by a superpower on the other side of the globe to undermine their rival who happens to be your closest neighbour? Do you comprehend that accepting military assistance from this superpower would be seen by your close neighbour as attempts to undermine their natural growth as a regional and world power? If you fail to recognize this and comprehend this reality, you have no business being the leader of a country, much less a de facto but not de jure independent one.

WEDNESDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2024

A reasonable argument can be made that Taiwan should be independent. The country and its people have proven over the past seven decades that they do not need any non-Taiwanese political masters to run their affairs.

Another insight I recently gained from the book, A New Illustrated History of Taiwan, by Chou Wan-yao, is that Taiwan was colonized not only by the Japanese between 1895 and 1945, but also, to a large extent, by the Nationalist government of the Republic of China between 1945 and at least the 1990s – which also forced them to speak a language they were unfamiliar with (Mandarin, or the Beijing dialect of Chinese), and which also forced them to focus on the history of a motherland that was not Taiwan (namely, Mainland China), with virtually no attention paid to the unique historical experiences of the people of Taiwan. It could further be argued that many Taiwanese are surely anxious about being colonized for a third time in over a century – this time by the government of the People’s Republic of China.

I think two points need to be emphasized here:

1. Taiwan risks the well-being and survival of millions of people on the island of Taiwan if they establish a close alliance with the United States of America. Two statements by the American statesman, Henry Kissinger, are relevant: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests” and “[It] may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal” (the latter was more of a warning that if certain things happened in South Vietnam in the late 1960s, America would be seen as such). The fact is, America has a historical record of exploiting other countries for their own national needs and political agendas, and when it becomes clear that things are not going to work out as they thought, they withdraw. And the country who placed their trust in them is left with the catastrophic result. Taiwan unfortunately has more than a few politicians and ordinary citizens who naively believe that America is the best friend in the world; that America will stand by Taiwan if China ever attacks the island, and that America will never abandon Taiwan.

2. The government in Beijing has a better argument than the government in Taipei about who, by international convention, should exercise control over the areas governed by the Taiwanese government – which still officially presents itself as the government of the Republic of China. In short: The Qing government ceded Taiwan and other islands to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Japan nullified all previous treaties signed by Imperial Japan with respect to China, including the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, thereby relinquishing its claim to Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Chinese Republic that existed until 1949 under the leadership of the Chinese Nationalist Party, as well as to the Qing state that fell in 1912, and inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments. The government in Taipei was considered the legitimate government of all of China, including Taiwan, by dozens of countries until the 1970s, including by the United States. However, since the late 1970s the Taipei-based Republic of China has not been recognized by most countries as the legitimate representative of the people of China. Which brings us back to an earlier point: The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Qing state, as well as to the Chinese Republic led by the KMT government in Mainland China until 1949, and legally inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments, including the island of Taiwan and surrounding islands. If the government in Taipei and the 23 million citizens of the islands of Taiwan want to stand a chance of achieving official independent status, this ambition must be worked out with Beijing.

FRIDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2024

The time is ripe to talk about Taiwanese independence.

The right way for Taiwan to talk about it is with China.

The wrong way to talk about it is for the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) to make statements that Taiwan and China are separate entities – despite what the constitution that gives the Taiwanese president his position dictates, and that China has no right to interfere in Taiwan’s affairs. Then, to further shake up the status quo in already turbulent waters, Taiwan is moving even closer to the world’s most aggressive superpower, the US, which sees China as its greatest geopolitical adversary.

De jure Taiwanese independence, after seven decades of de facto independence, is indeed a highly relevant topic that deserves to be discussed at the highest levels of political science. But this matter must be negotiated with China, given the reasonable arguments that Taiwan is part of One China. Challenging statements from the Taiwanese side, with hints of war with America as a supposed ally, is the wrong way to approach the subject.

SATURDAY, 19 OCTOBER 2024

Of course, many people say China will never agree to Taiwanese independence.

What is the alternative? America opens a military base on one of the islands near the Chinese coast controlled by Taiwan, with the idea that it would enable them to provide better protection of Taiwan in case the Taiwanese president unilaterally declares independence? Or, the president meets with officials from the US government, who assure him, hand on chest, of all the money and weapons and sanctions America can conjure up to help Taiwan if the island state officially declares independence? That the military conflict that would follow would initially serve the long-term goals of the US government to weaken China economically, diplomatically, and militarily as a geopolitical opponent at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese lives would surely be labelled as disinformation – as “talking points” from Beijing.

In the real world, there are only two options for Taiwan in the next decade or three: 1) As a province of China with certain privileges, such as its own currency and even its own flag, and 2) As an independent but close ally of China.

WEDNESDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2024

To summarize:

1. Activists for Taiwan independence make a reasonable argument why Taiwan deserves to be recognized as an independent state.

2. Taiwan’s independence would have to be negotiated with the government of the People’s Republic of China, and no one else. Why? Unresolved issues from World War II and its aftermath, and from the Chinese Civil War.

3. Arguments can be made why the government of the People’s Republic of China ought to recognize Taiwanese de facto independence and establish state-to-state diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

4. The government of the People’s Republic of China would most likely not agree to Taiwanese independence, for rational reasons that will make sense to anyone who understands the background, as well as the mandate that the government in Beijing believes they have to govern all territory that was part of China before the People’s Republic was proclaimed in October 1949.

5. The government in Taipei will eventually reach an agreement with the government in Beijing that after five, or ten, years Taiwan would be an autonomous or quasi-self-governing province of the People’s Republic of China. There would be resistance from Taiwanese nationalists, but eventually the majority of the population of Taiwan would accept the new political status.

6. There would be peace.

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A meaningful snippet of knowledge

TUESDAY, 8 OCTOBER 2024

I frantically started taking notes in 1994. It was as if I sensed a calling to report on my life. For the past thirty years, I have reported on and off; sometimes every day and sometimes just a few paragraphs in one calendar year.

The point is still to say: Here I am. This is how I experience life.

* * *

Thirty years ago, I wanted to make money because I wanted to do what I wanted to do. I didn’t want people barking orders and expecting me to jump. I wanted to have money so I could travel and study (seriously, I was 23 years old, and I wanted to study).

Twenty years ago, I seriously wanted to improve my income because I wanted to create a better life for myself, and for the young woman I would later marry. I wanted to travel more, and I wanted to visit my family in South Africa more often.

Today I want to improve my income because I want to strengthen my financial security, especially considering that in perhaps two decades I will no longer feel like working, or may no longer be able to do everything I want to do.

Different desires, but the same path that leads to fulfilment. One difference is that I know what twenty and thirty years feel like under the soles of my feet, and I know how they slip through my fingers. And I know that twenty or thirty years from now – if I last that long – I will be officially old. Not necessarily decrepit, but definitely elderly. This meaningful snippet of knowledge was not part of my experience of existence twenty or thirty years ago.

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Possibilities of the nature of our reality (and who’s in control)

FRIDAY, 23 AUGUST 2024

One: The world naturally came into being through explosions and cosmic expansion, and evolution. Political leaders are people who have risen to positions of power through a combination of personality, chance, and social pressure. Most of them are corrupt, although some certainly try their best to serve and uplift their communities. Then they die or are voted out or recalled, and someone else takes their place. Another version of this is that the strings in America are pulled by a conspiracy of Big Oil, Intelligence, and Wall Street (see Mike Benz on X). One could certainly assume that each country has its own version of such large and powerful interests making decisions behind the scenes.

Two: The world naturally came into being through explosions and cosmic expansion and evolution. Political leaders are puppets of the Vatican, who pull all the important strings behind the scenes. Why? The Roman Catholic Church ruled Europe for almost a thousand years. The common assumption is that they slowly but surely lost power and influence over the next five centuries. This assumption is either wrong, or they succeeded in placing supporters back in positions of power.

Three: The world came into being naturally through explosions and cosmic expansion and evolution. Political leaders are puppets of a Jewish conspiracy to rule the world for their own benefit. Why? Jewish conspiracy leaders believe in the superiority of Jews, and believe that it is God’s will that Jews rule the world.

Four: The world came into being naturally through explosions and cosmic expansion and evolution. At some point, effective control of the world was taken over by reptilian beings from outer space who worship demons. Political leaders are Satanic paedophiles who are puppets of these reptilian beings who rule the world through manipulation for their own benefit.

Five: We and the world of which we are sensibly aware are part of a computer simulation – what we experience as reality is in fact a super-realistic, advanced computer simulation. What is the argument for this? At some point, humanity will develop the technological skills and resources to create a powerful computer simulation of their ancestors. Chances are they will create many such simulations. Chances are the simulated inhabitants of these worlds will have consciousness. What are the chances then that the person who is conscious of himself is part of the generation that originally created such simulations, and not one of possibly thousands of simulations?

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What will retirement look like in ten or fifteen years?

MONDAY, 17 JUNE 2024

The simple truth: I have said what I wanted to say. Now I do what I need to do to ensure I can enjoy a relatively comfortable retirement in a few years.

TUESDAY, 18 JUNE 2024

Now that we’re on the subject: What will retirement look like in ten or fifteen years?

Will a comfortable but not luxurious lower-middle-class life cost more than it does now or less, relatively speaking?

Will proper healthcare be more expensive or cheaper?

How affordable will domestic robots be? Surely they’ll become both cheaper and more useful, as has been the case with personal computers over the past thirty years.

What about food production? It is already possible for inner-city apartment dwellers to grow a wide variety of vegetables in their living rooms, or in a spare room. How essential will independent food production be for survival in the city in 2030, or 2035, or 2026?

How expensive will it be to travel? Self-driving taxi to the train station where you’ll travel by high-speed train to your destination – more expensive than now or more affordable? Would a person in their sixties or seventies even want to travel to other places with the associated risk if they could stay at home and experience any town, city, mountain or beach in the world with virtual technology?

With fruits and vegetables free of chemicals, plenty of exercise, low crime in high-security communities, affordable healthcare, your average Generation Xer might live longer over the next few decades. The big question: How much money would you need to sustain this retirement?

Another thing: How will money work ten years from now? Paper money and coins will likely be phased out. How much will your Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies be worth in 2035? Will it be replaced by digital currencies managed by a Ministry of Finance or Central Bank? How much influence will these institutions have on political opinion – especially opinions critical of the government on foreign policy, crime control, immigration, and vaccines?

Certainly it deserves a proper discussion, but can democracy work in reality, or is democracy like the old saying goes, “Two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner”?

Speaking of wolves and a sheep, what will life on the self-governing island of Taiwan look like in a decade or so? Will America find another lamb to sacrifice for its bloodlust and greed? The Philippines perhaps? South Korea? Japan? How far will China go to make it clear to Imperial America that if Taiwan is going to be a vassal state, it is certainly not going to be one of a crumbling empire in the West?

How physically demanding will retirement be in your sixties or seventies in a decade? Will your body be kept alive artificially with tubes and machines while your mind is on vacation or travelling the world? Of course, the tubes will just keep pumping nutrients into your veins while your credit lasts. The moment your credit reaches zero, your view of the beach, or of the Eiffel Tower, will fade until you hear one final “bleep.”

What about a medical institution that assists you in ending your own life when you reach a certain age? Or when you develop some disease that can be cured, but it will take time and money. Or when your money runs out. How popular will this be for people who cannot afford a comfortable retirement, or for whom something went wrong a few years before they were supposed to retire? How normal will it be ten years from now for doctors and other professionals who work with older people to present it as a “dignified” solution? (Will medical professionals earn a commission for their recommendations?)

Is this going to be a case of people with money living to the ripe old age of 120 or even longer, with freshly printed or developed organs, new teeth, and all sorts of other medical wonders in place of their old parts, and people who by 45 or 50 have failed to achieve financial success, or who haven’t inherited enough from the previous generation, being encouraged to receive state-subsidized euthanasia?

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