TUESDAY, 28 MAY 2024
Maturity test for a leader of an independent Taiwan: Do you acknowledge that your small nation may be exploited by a superpower on the other side of the globe to undermine their rival who happens to be your closest neighbour? Do you comprehend that accepting military assistance from this superpower would be seen by your close neighbour as attempts to undermine their natural growth as a regional and world power? If you fail to recognize this and comprehend this reality, you have no business being the leader of a country, much less a de facto but not de jure independent one.
WEDNESDAY, 16 OCTOBER 2024
A reasonable argument can be made that Taiwan should be independent. The country and its people have proven over the past seven decades that they do not need any non-Taiwanese political masters to run their affairs.
Another insight I recently gained from the book, A New Illustrated History of Taiwan, by Chou Wan-yao, is that Taiwan was colonized not only by the Japanese between 1895 and 1945, but also, to a large extent, by the Nationalist government of the Republic of China between 1945 and at least the 1990s – which also forced them to speak a language they were unfamiliar with (Mandarin, or the Beijing dialect of Chinese), and which also forced them to focus on the history of a motherland that was not Taiwan (namely, Mainland China), with virtually no attention paid to the unique historical experiences of the people of Taiwan. It could further be argued that many Taiwanese are surely anxious about being colonized for a third time in over a century – this time by the government of the People’s Republic of China.
I think two points need to be emphasized here:
1. Taiwan risks the well-being and survival of millions of people on the island of Taiwan if they establish a close alliance with the United States of America. Two statements by the American statesman, Henry Kissinger, are relevant: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests” and “[It] may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal” (the latter was more of a warning that if certain things happened in South Vietnam in the late 1960s, America would be seen as such). The fact is, America has a historical record of exploiting other countries for their own national needs and political agendas, and when it becomes clear that things are not going to work out as they thought, they withdraw. And the country who placed their trust in them is left with the catastrophic result. Taiwan unfortunately has more than a few politicians and ordinary citizens who naively believe that America is the best friend in the world; that America will stand by Taiwan if China ever attacks the island, and that America will never abandon Taiwan.
2. The government in Beijing has a better argument than the government in Taipei about who, by international convention, should exercise control over the areas governed by the Taiwanese government – which still officially presents itself as the government of the Republic of China. In short: The Qing government ceded Taiwan and other islands to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Japan nullified all previous treaties signed by Imperial Japan with respect to China, including the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, thereby relinquishing its claim to Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Chinese Republic that existed until 1949 under the leadership of the Chinese Nationalist Party, as well as to the Qing state that fell in 1912, and inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments. The government in Taipei was considered the legitimate government of all of China, including Taiwan, by dozens of countries until the 1970s, including by the United States. However, since the late 1970s the Taipei-based Republic of China has not been recognized by most countries as the legitimate representative of the people of China. Which brings us back to an earlier point: The People’s Republic of China is the successor state to the Qing state, as well as to the Chinese Republic led by the KMT government in Mainland China until 1949, and legally inherited control of all areas previously under the control of those states or governments, including the island of Taiwan and surrounding islands. If the government in Taipei and the 23 million citizens of the islands of Taiwan want to stand a chance of achieving official independent status, this ambition must be worked out with Beijing.
FRIDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2024
The time is ripe to talk about Taiwanese independence.
The right way for Taiwan to talk about it is with China.
The wrong way to talk about it is for the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan) to make statements that Taiwan and China are separate entities – despite what the constitution that gives the Taiwanese president his position dictates, and that China has no right to interfere in Taiwan’s affairs. Then, to further shake up the status quo in already turbulent waters, Taiwan is moving even closer to the world’s most aggressive superpower, the US, which sees China as its greatest geopolitical adversary.
De jure Taiwanese independence, after seven decades of de facto independence, is indeed a highly relevant topic that deserves to be discussed at the highest levels of political science. But this matter must be negotiated with China, given the reasonable arguments that Taiwan is part of One China. Challenging statements from the Taiwanese side, with hints of war with America as a supposed ally, is the wrong way to approach the subject.
SATURDAY, 19 OCTOBER 2024
Of course, many people say China will never agree to Taiwanese independence.
What is the alternative? America opens a military base on one of the islands near the Chinese coast controlled by Taiwan, with the idea that it would enable them to provide better protection of Taiwan in case the Taiwanese president unilaterally declares independence? Or, the president meets with officials from the US government, who assure him, hand on chest, of all the money and weapons and sanctions America can conjure up to help Taiwan if the island state officially declares independence? That the military conflict that would follow would initially serve the long-term goals of the US government to weaken China economically, diplomatically, and militarily as a geopolitical opponent at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese lives would surely be labelled as disinformation – as “talking points” from Beijing.
In the real world, there are only two options for Taiwan in the next decade or three: 1) As a province of China with certain privileges, such as its own currency and even its own flag, and 2) As an independent but close ally of China.
WEDNESDAY, 30 OCTOBER 2024
To summarize:
1. Activists for Taiwan independence make a reasonable argument why Taiwan deserves to be recognized as an independent state.
2. Taiwan’s independence would have to be negotiated with the government of the People’s Republic of China, and no one else. Why? Unresolved issues from World War II and its aftermath, and from the Chinese Civil War.
3. Arguments can be made why the government of the People’s Republic of China ought to recognize Taiwanese de facto independence and establish state-to-state diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
4. The government of the People’s Republic of China would most likely not agree to Taiwanese independence, for rational reasons that will make sense to anyone who understands the background, as well as the mandate that the government in Beijing believes they have to govern all territory that was part of China before the People’s Republic was proclaimed in October 1949.
5. The government in Taipei will eventually reach an agreement with the government in Beijing that after five, or ten, years Taiwan would be an autonomous or quasi-self-governing province of the People’s Republic of China. There would be resistance from Taiwanese nationalists, but eventually the majority of the population of Taiwan would accept the new political status.
6. There would be peace.
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