Sell or speculate, and the concept of probability

TUESDAY, 26 MARCH 2013

It’s always the same: Ask the right questions. Break the problem into smaller parts. You’ll never get where you want to go if you constantly ask the wrong questions, and if you don’t know what you are talking about or what your end goal is.

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Before you can start making money you must ask yourself one question: Do I want to sell something, or do I want to speculate?

To bring together what you need, you also have to consider the concept of probability. You may think that something is not absolutely necessary, but ask yourself if the availability of a particular resource would increase the likelihood of success or not. Or the opposite: How much will the absence of a certain resource reduce the likelihood of your success?

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What do you need in order to make money selling something?

– Seed capital – not always necessary, but consider the likelihood of success without it.

– A market – more specifically, you need to identify a market that already spends money on certain products.

– A product – someone else’s product you can sell, or your own product. A good approach is to think of a product that people need to get to a place where they want to go, or something that will help them get away from a place they don’t want to be, or a product that will help them hold on to something they don’t want to lose, or simply something that gives them joy, comfort or entertainment.

– Marketing platforms and channels to familiarise your market with the product you believe they would buy if they knew it existed and is available.

– Human resources – can you do all the work that has to be done yourself? Will it increase the likelihood of success if you have one or more partners, or if you employ one or more people to do some of the work for you, or if you outsource some of the work?

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What do you need if you want to make money by speculating on, for example, the financial markets?

– Seed capital – a few thousand rand (or dollars or pounds) you won’t need for anything else and that you are willing to lose.

– Guidance of a trustworthy source that will teach your basic strategies, signals to look for, pitfalls to avoid, and so forth.

– A positive attitude, and patience.

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Is it better to make money selling something or speculating on something?

Of course, people differ in their preferences, and both ways of making money have both pros and cons.

If I had a good product and a hungry market, I would rather sell something. Why? You can later delegate a lot of the work to other people, and depending on the type of product, a large part of your income may eventually be passive – that is, you wouldn’t have to pay attention to it every day to make money from it.

It is also true that things can go wrong with any product, or with the place where you sell your product, or with a marketing channel, or the market can get lukewarm at first and then turn ice cold.

Because there are risks involved with both ways of earning an income, it is probably best to try both approaches, or if you’re smart enough or willing to work hard, to master both.

Since you are unlikely to generate an income overnight speculating on the markets, the best thing you can do is to become familiar with at least one niche where you can start selling a product or service as soon as possible.

The golden rules: Start small; Start sooner rather than later; Keep it simple; Constantly refine your processes and methods; Repeat what works.

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Appearance – disorder – freedom

SUNDAY, 3 FEBRUARY 2013

Appearance is a nasty business. On your own, in the privacy of your own rooms, you are near perfect. You’re not too fat, you’re not too poor, you’re not too stupid or too boring.

And then you realize you need milk.

The moment you appear in public, you realise you’re fat – compared to the slender person who passes you on the sidewalk. You realise you are actually quite unattractive, compared to the much more attractive person standing next to you at the traffic light. You realise you are actually quite broke, compared to the amount and variety of groceries the person behind you in the queue at the supermarket has in their trolley.

WEDNESDAY, 20 FEBRUARY 2013

1. Is it not strange that, as adults, we are almost by default under the impression that we are not free to do what we want. We have to make ourselves valuable in order to justify our existence. We hope someone is so gracious to give us work as soon as we finish school, or after we have undergone some training to make ourselves more valuable. We hope somebody sees what we can do for them and are willing to pay us for the value we can deliver so that we can survive. Freedom, we’ve been told time and again from childhood, is like a private beach: a privilege reserved for the wealthy few.

2. You want to be a good person; you want to support your fellow travellers through life in their struggles. At the same time you want to detach; you want to free yourself from the mess that society is at times.

MONDAY, 25 FEBRUARY 2013

Over the past couple of weeks I discovered I am suffering from some kind of disturbance. I considered possible causes: money … my approaching holiday … my plane ticket, and so on. I think maybe it’s not about money. I think maybe it’s appearance.

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If you want to sell what you write, take note of a few things

MONDAY, 21 JANUARY 2013

Yesterday morning my Smashwords account indicated that I had sold two copies of A shorter version of a longer book (which I had just made available a few hours previously) overnight. By last night, though, the sales appeared to have been the result of a “fraudulent payment method”. What does this mean? A criminal tried to purchase an obscure collection of essays with a stolen credit card? It’s either an interesting comment on my description of the book, or it says something about the criminal.

I did make use of the opportunity to remind myself of a few things:

1. Some people who are going to buy your book are not going to like what they read, and they will attempt to recover their money from the place where they had bought it.

2. Some buyers of your book will not like what you wrote or how you wrote it, or they will be alarmed to see what your opinions are on certain matters, and immediately seek an outlet for their revulsion, which they usually find by leaving mean but what they regard as honest comments on a public forum so that other potential buyers can see what they think of your book (or how little they think of it).

3. Some people will buy your book thinking it would be amusing, then after reading a few pages realise it is indeed not amusing at all – or not enough for their taste or expectation – and then be upset that they have wasted their money.

There, a few thoughts for those who might be considering making a living with words, or any other method of conveying thoughts or opinions to the population outside his or her comfort zone. It is probably the price one has to be prepared to pay if you are not satisfied with merely capturing your thoughts or opinions, but if you actually go so far as to make available what you have written for other people to purchase and read.

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Time doesn’t really fly

SATURDAY, 5 JANUARY 2013

I usually stand in the front row of the choir when a lament is being sung about how time flies. One year … five years … a decade! Twenty years … As you’re standing there in shock, wondering what you have done and what you still wanted to do, you see the images of ten and twenty years ago in your mind’s eye – clear as crystal, as if it was yesterday.

It is therefore sometimes necessary to remind yourself of the actual numbers:

5 years: almost 2,000 days and nights

10 years: more than 3,500 days and nights

20 years: more than 7,000 days and nights; more than 7,000 times you ate breakfast, more than 7,000 dinners; more than 20,000 trips to the loo; if you worked full-time for a 20-year period, that means perhaps as much as 5,000 days … more than 5,000 times stuck in traffic (maybe twice as much) … thousands of times you talked to people you really wanted to avoid … maybe more than a thousand barbeques in the backyard … maybe as many as 10,000 programs watched on TV, or even more.

Time doesn’t really fly.

In fact, if you look at it closely, over five or ten or twenty years, you have thousands of opportunities to do good, to fix what is wrong or what you have done wrong, and to produce something or to help create something that will eventually have value to other people.

Every day you get a chance to enjoy a little something of life, and every day you get a chance to mean something to someone else – someone who may remember you long after you have enjoyed the last of more than 25,000 breakfasts.

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